I'm a business developer and business operations leader at Amazon, and founder and director of the Eastside Box Lacrosse League.
I have a variety of interests I like to explore and post about here from time to time — some related to work, most related to personal interests.
This blog post investigates a potential correlation between the elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the stock market and growth of the M2 money supply. I hypothesize that increased M2, concentrated among wealthy individuals, allows for sustained high stock valuations despite historically high P/E ratios. Utilizing the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio—a more robust measure of P/E developed by Robert Shiller—and M2 data from the St. Louis Fed, I begin with a visual exploration of this correlation across several decades, noting discrepancies and potential explanations for observed trends. My ultimate goal is to develop a directional predictive model for passive ETF investment timing based on M2 (and potentially other factors), leveraging AI tools to aid my analysis.
When I moved to Seattle in early 2013, I began playing lacrosse for the Seattle Lacrosse Club. I knew the club was the oldest team in Seattle, but no one knew when it started or how. As I began pulling on the string of the club’s origins, I found there was a much older and surprising story about the genesis of lacrosse in the northwest.